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Tuesday, March 16, 2004 Volume 1 Issue 17  
The Second Term: President Putin Got What He Hoped For

The oligarchs are back to business (and only business). Once-rebellious regional leaders are outwardly content. The Federation Council and the Duma are under a powerful spell. The media is silenced. And the people are apathetic and happy.

So begins Vladimir Putin's second term as President of the Russian Federation, after 71 percent of Russian voters said "da” to four more years of his leadership on the 14th of March. The election results were not a surprise, and neither is the likely direction and focus of Putin's second term.

The status quo, but with a heavy hand, is perhaps the best way to describe what is expected in President Putin's second term. Economic reform and liberalization are expected to continue, which is good. But so too will be the consolidation of the Kremlin's power, which is not so good. In the past four years, Putin has systematically amassed almost absolute power, neutering every other institution in the process. Today, there is literally no countervailing point of view — it's Putin's and Putin's alone.

But the majority of citizens are happy and content. Prosperity, while still a reality for only a relative few, seems more attainable for more Russians than ever before. Stability, while boring, is a welcomed relief after a decade of turmoil, disorder and uncertainty of the pre-Putin regime. That's what Putin offered Russian voters in this election cycle — a predictable, strong and almost omnipotent government — and that's clearly what they want.

In his first term, President Putin stabilized Russia's economy, modernized the tax system and reformed property rights. Now he has his sights on doubling the economy in 10 years, improving the conditions of Russians living in poverty and weaning the country's dependence on oil and natural resources. Providing a helping hand to small business and establishing a modern banking system are among other Putin priorities.

Getting rid of Mikhail Kasyanov, a prime minister not in his pocket, and replacing him with Mikhail Fradkov, one who is, was Putin's latest step toward consolidating his power. The near unanimous acceptance of Fradkov as Prime Minister is yet another example of Putin's stronghold on the government.

Fradkov is widely seen as a good soldier rather than his own man, unlike Kasyanov. He is expected to be adept at moving President Putin's legislative agenda forward and, possibly, to strengthen the government's uneven crackdown on corruption.

Fradkov's selection is also an example of Putin's uncanny political prowess. Kremlin insiders like Fradkov because of his strong security background and preference for greater state control. But economic reformers are happy too, because of Fradkov's economic and trade experience and the proven economic reform record of his only Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Zhukov.

Fradkov is expected to be loyal and not overly ambitious. He will stay out of the limelight. And, when the time comes, he will quietly step aside to make way for Putin's hand-picked successor.

However, consolidation of power also comes at substantial risk for President Putin. Without independent forces and divergent visions for the country, responsibility for moving the country forward is firmly centered on one person — Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Be careful, Vladimir Vladimirovich, you may have gotten exactly what you hoped for.

 

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