The Second Term: President Putin
Got What He Hoped For
The oligarchs are back to business (and only
business). Once-rebellious regional leaders are
outwardly content. The Federation Council and the Duma
are under a powerful spell. The media is silenced. And
the people are apathetic and happy.
So begins Vladimir Putin's second term as President
of the Russian Federation, after 71 percent of Russian
voters said "da” to four more years of his leadership on
the 14th of March. The election results were not a
surprise, and neither is the likely direction and focus
of Putin's second term.
The status quo, but with a heavy hand, is perhaps the
best way to describe what is expected in President
Putin's second term. Economic reform and liberalization
are expected to continue, which is good. But so too will
be the consolidation of the Kremlin's power, which is
not so good. In the past four years, Putin has
systematically amassed almost absolute power, neutering
every other institution in the process. Today, there is
literally no countervailing point of view — it's
Putin's and Putin's alone.
But the majority of citizens are happy and content.
Prosperity, while still a reality for only a relative
few, seems more attainable for more Russians than ever
before. Stability, while boring, is a welcomed relief
after a decade of turmoil, disorder and uncertainty of
the pre-Putin regime. That's what Putin offered Russian
voters in this election cycle — a predictable, strong
and almost omnipotent government — and that's clearly
what they want.
In his first term, President Putin stabilized
Russia's economy, modernized the tax system and reformed
property rights. Now he has his sights on doubling the
economy in 10 years, improving the conditions of
Russians living in poverty and weaning the country's
dependence on oil and natural resources. Providing a
helping hand to small business and establishing a modern
banking system are among other Putin priorities.
Getting rid of Mikhail Kasyanov, a prime minister not
in his pocket, and replacing him with Mikhail Fradkov,
one who is, was Putin's latest step toward consolidating
his power. The near unanimous acceptance of Fradkov as
Prime Minister is yet another example of Putin's
stronghold on the government.
Fradkov is widely seen as a good soldier rather than
his own man, unlike Kasyanov. He is expected to be adept
at moving President Putin's legislative agenda forward
and, possibly, to strengthen the government's uneven
crackdown on corruption.
Fradkov's selection is also an example of Putin's
uncanny political prowess. Kremlin insiders like Fradkov
because of his strong security background and preference
for greater state control. But economic reformers are
happy too, because of Fradkov's economic and trade
experience and the proven economic reform record of his
only Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Zhukov.
Fradkov is expected to be loyal and not overly
ambitious. He will stay out of the limelight. And, when
the time comes, he will quietly step aside to make way
for Putin's hand-picked successor.
However, consolidation of power also comes at
substantial risk for President Putin. Without
independent forces and divergent visions for the
country, responsibility for moving the country forward
is firmly centered on one person — Vladimir
Vladimirovich Putin. Be careful, Vladimir Vladimirovich,
you may have gotten exactly what you hoped
for.
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